Goat Milk

The U.S. dairy industry has traditionally relied on monthly milk production reports from the USDA to monitor the availability of milk supplies and project dairy product output. Historically, decreases in farmgate milk production indicated reduced supplies of both fluid milk and key milk components, like butterfat and protein, which are essential for producing dairy products such as cheese, butter, and yogurt. A decline in milk supplies often signaled the potential slowdown of dairy processor expansion plans.

However, the dynamics of U.S. milk production are evolving. While the total volume of milk production has declined for 14 consecutive months through September 2024, the production of butterfat and protein—key components in many dairy products—has increased in 12 of those months. This shift underscores a significant transformation in the industry, where milk composition now plays a more critical role than overall milk volume.

A report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange describes this “decoupling” of fluid milk production from milk component production as a paradigm shift driven by increased consumer demand for manufactured dairy products. More than 80% of U.S. milk is used for producing solid dairy products that depend heavily on milk components, while less than 20% is used in fluid beverages.

To adapt to these changes, the report suggests that the USDA’s milk production reports should be expanded to include data on protein and butterfat levels, providing a more comprehensive view of the industry. Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist at CoBank, noted, “A more robust report would be informative to producers, processors, and retailers for better planning and risk management.”

The shift in focus from milk volume to milk solids is reshaping the dairy market. Cheese production, for instance, has benefitted from higher butterfat and protein yields in milk, with each 100 pounds of milk yielding 11.2 pounds of cheese in 2023, compared to 10.1 pounds in 2010.

This trend extends beyond the U.S. domestic market, as manufactured dairy products are driving export growth, further emphasizing the demand for milk components. With over $7 billion invested in new dairy processing capacity, both at home and abroad, the industry is poised for continued growth in response to these shifting demands.

The Milk Component Pricing provisions have incentivized dairy producers to focus on increasing protein and butterfat content in their milk, driven by soaring consumer demand for high-quality dairy products like cheese and yogurt.

While updating the USDA’s monthly milk reports to include milk component data may pose challenges, Geiger emphasizes the long-term benefits for the industry, given the permanent shift towards milk solids in consumer preferences.

Guernsey Dairy has encountered issues with both its cheese packaging and organic milk production over recent weeks, impacting product availability. Customers are returning cheese after problems with the packaging equipment meant it has been going mouldy.

Managing Director Andrew Tabel revealed that faulty seals on the back of some mild cheese packaging had ‘caused a slow leak of the nitrogen/CO2 mix, which is essential for preserving cheese and extending its shelf life’.

While only a small number of the distributed packs were affected, the decision was made to withdraw remaining stock as a precaution. So far, around 30 packs have been returned out of the 1,620 distributed during the affected period. Tabel assured that adjustments to the packaging equipment had been made, and a trial run with rigorous checks would soon confirm if the problem was fully resolved.

On the organic milk front, Tabel explained that an outdated thermograph, used to measure temperatures, needed replacement, but a direct substitute was unavailable. Engineers fitted a similar device, which is currently being programmed. A trial will determine if organic milk can return to shelves in the coming days.

Local retailers indicated minimal disruption. Ian Wood, a local supplier, noted only a few customer complaints regarding spoiled cheese, which were quickly resolved with replacements or refunds. The issue with organic milk, which has persisted for about four weeks, affected only a small portion of the product line and caused no significant difficulties.

Patrick Kilroy-Doyle, who supplies the Forest Stores, said he had not been adversely affected on this occasion. ‘Apart from having no organic milk it’s been business as usual really,’ he said.

Retailers have been kept informed throughout, and with corrective measures underway, Tabel expects operations to return to normal soon.

The global evaporated goat milk market is on an upward trajectory, fueled by its nutrient-rich profile and growing popularity as a lactose-alternative.

The goat milk products industry worldwide is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$ 17,908.3 million by 2030. A compound annual growth rate of 4.7% is expected of the worldwide goat milk products industry from 2024 to 2030.

Global goat milk products market highlights:

• The global goat milk products market generated a revenue of US$ 12,956.3 million in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 17,908.3 million by 2030.
• Market analysis by Research and Markets, featured on a premier research platform, projects a resilient growth from $5.75 billion in 2023 to an estimated $6.63 billion by 2028, supported by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0%.
• The market is expected to grow at a CAGR (2024 – 2030) of 4.7% by 2030.
• In terms of segment, liquid milk accounted for a revenue of US$ 8,244.6 million in 2023.
• Powdered Milk is the most lucrative product segment registering the fastest growth during the forecast period.
• In terms of region, Asia Pacific was the largest revenue generating market in 2023.
• Country-wise, Saudi Arabia is expected to register the highest CAGR from 2024 to 2030.

Key Growth Drivers:

• Health and Wellness Trends: Increasing consumer awareness regarding the health benefits of goat milk and its culinary versatility.
• Lactose Intolerance Prevalence: The rise in lactose-intolerant populations globally contributes to the growing acceptance of evaporated goat milk.
• Disposable Income Surge: Growing disposable income across regions propels the demand for premium and health-conscious products.
• Vegan and Dairy-Free Lifestyles: The shift towards vegan and dairy-free lifestyles is a significant factor influencing market expansion.

Factors Propelling Growth:

• Consumer Awareness: Rising understanding of the nutritional advantages of evaporated goat milk, especially suitable for children and those with dietary restrictions.
• Technological Advances: Ongoing efforts in product innovation and technological advancements by key industry players.
• Government Support: Favorable policies and government backing for dairy alternatives and lactose-intolerant friendly products.
• Functional Variations: Availability of functional and fortified goat milk options catering to modern consumer preferences.

Regional Dynamics and Market Segmentation:

Europe Dominance: Europe stands as a prominent player, followed by contributions from Asia-Pacific, North America, and the MEA region.

Category Segmentation: The market is categorized into whole evaporated milk and skimmed evaporated milk, each finding application in areas such as infant food, dairy products, confectionery, and bakeries.

Distribution Channels: Both online and offline channels contribute to the accessibility of evaporated goat milk products.

This comprehensive report provides valuable insights into the evolving landscape of the evaporated goat milk market, offering a strategic perspective for industry stakeholders navigating this dynamic and growing sector.