Goat Milk

Following a poor run of results in recent months, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) has recorded a positive start to 2026.

The inaugural Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event of 2026, identified as Event 395, took place on January 6 and sent a positive message to the international dairy market. The GDT Price Index experienced a notable rise of 6.3% compared to the previous event, signifying a robust start to the year for global dairy prices.

Experts noted that the strong rise in the index (+6.3%) was largely driven by the significant share of milk powder—especially whole milk powder—in total traded volumes, which were considerably lower than at previous auctions.

The auction highlighted a strong buyer presence, with average winning prices hitting USD 3,533 per metric ton, indicating increased competition and willingness to pay among buyers. There were 177 registered bidders participating in the auction, out of which 114 emerged as successful buyers.

The auction was extensive, comprising 26 bidding rounds over a span of 2 hours and 57 minutes, underscoring the intensity and demand present in the market. The volume of dairy products traded ranged between 27,936 and 34,923 metric tons, with the total quantity sold amounting to 29,282 metric tons, consistent with recent events.

This strong performance in the first GDT of 2026 provides a positive outlook for dairy producers, processors, and exporting countries, who are closely monitoring international price trends following a cautious end to 2025.

General Mills has reported its fiscal second-quarter results, surpassing Wall Street expectations with adjusted earnings of $1.10 per share, above analysts’ projections of $1.02. Despite facing challenges from the sale of its yogurt business in North America, the company’s shares rose by 1.17% following the announcement. Net sales for the quarter ending November 23 reached $4.9 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.78 billion, though representing a 7% year-over-year decline.

The divestment of the yogurt business, which included the Yoplait brand, led to a 10% decrease in sales for the North American Retail segment, which saw a 13% fall in net sales. This strategic move is part of General Mills’ shift towards higher-margin categories with less competition from private labels, which have affected their fresh dairy market share. The yogurt segment, with its high perishability and logistical costs, has faced profitability pressures in mature markets due to consumer shifts towards plant-based or premium functional products.

Organic net sales, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, dropped by only 1% year-over-year, demonstrating the resilience of the remaining portfolio. Jeff Harmening, CEO of General Mills, noted that investments in product innovation, premium packaging, brand communication, and omnichannel execution are driving organic volume growth in North America, enhancing competitiveness across all segments.

The North American Pet segment saw an 11% increase in net sales, benefiting from the acquisition of Whitebridge Pet Brands. The International segment experienced a 6% growth, driven by strong performance in Brazil, China, India, and North Asia. This geographic diversification helps offset domestic market weaknesses, where private-label competition and consumer preferences for fresh, local, and less-processed foods pressure traditional categories like cereals and baking mixes.

General Mills has reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, expecting organic net sales to range between -1% and +1%, with adjusted operating profit and diluted earnings per share projected to decrease by 10% to 15% in constant currency. This cautious guidance reflects a transitional year post-dairy divestment, prioritizing reinvestment in strategic brands over short-term margin expansion.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that China’s dairy industry will reach a phase of structural stability by 2026. This follows a period of volatility characterized by declining milk prices since 2022. As a result, smaller dairy producers have exited the market, leading to a consolidation of production within larger industrial operations.

According to the USDA’s office in Beijing, mega-farms now account for over 68% of China’s total milk production. This marks an increase of more than 2% compared to the previous year. The consolidation trend reflects a broader global pattern where operations with economies of scale dominate markets with compressed profit margins.

China’s local dairy production is gradually reducing its historic dependency on imports. Although fluid milk imports are expected to decline slightly by 2026, the production of skim milk powder is projected to increase, maintaining current import levels. Despite this progress, China remains reliant on foreign suppliers for specialized dairy products where domestic competitiveness is still developing.

The USDA also forecasts a slight growth in both the production and importation of butter and cheese. Meanwhile, imports of whey and derivatives are expected to remain strong. These projections highlight strategic opportunities for global exporters, as China’s domestic market continues to evolve.

Overall, the shift towards mega-farm dominance and increased local production are reshaping the dairy supply chain in China, with implications for technology, bovine genetics, feed, and specialized veterinary services. This transformation is steering China’s dairy industry towards efficiency and biosecurity standards comparable to leading Western dairy regions.