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Cheese prices break $1.70, boosting nearby milk futures, but the slide in 2026 contracts signals future uncertainty.

The recent surge in cheese prices has been a topic of close scrutiny among market watchers. Breaking the crucial $1.70 per pound mark, cheese prices are infusing optimism into milk futures contracts for the coming months. This rally represents a strong signal for the dairy sector, with nearby Class III futures experiencing significant boosts as September contracts rose by more than 40 cents from the week’s low.

However, while short-term cheese markets are thriving, 2026 futures contracts do not paint the same rosy picture. They have dipped, with January to June contracts falling six cents to a low of $17.78 per hundredweight, showing the lowest levels since April. This trend underlines the mixed sentiments within the dairy industry, with concerns about the longer-term outlook.

Market Highlights:

• CME cheese markets saw a resurgence over $1.70 per pound, with spot blocks closing at $1.7050 per pound and barrels at $1.7100 per pound.
• The butter market faced a slight downturn to $2.4450 per pound, while spot dry whey prices rallied up to $0.5500 per pound.
• Latest labor statistics indicate a soft job market, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, and unemployment rising to 4.2%.

The dichotomy in cheese price trends between various futures contracts and spot markets captures the existing uncertainty within the dairy industry as it navigates the fluctuating economic landscape.

Butter wars – ‘nothing cures high prices like high prices’ but, will market forces be enough?

A new product from Country Crock labeled as “dairy-free butter” has sparked growing concern within the dairy industry.

The dairy industry urges FDA action against ‘dairy-free butter’ labeling, citing federal standard violations and consumer confusion.

The dairy industry is mounting a strong pushback against the use of traditional dairy terms, particularly the word “butter,” on plant-based alternatives. The American Butter Institute (ABI) has formally requested the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to take decisive action against products like Country Crock’s “dairy-free butter.” The ABI argues that such labeling is misleading and violates federal standards, which define butter as a product made exclusively from milk or cream.

This intensifies the ongoing struggle within the agribusiness sector to control the narrative around butter labeling. Christopher Galen, executive director of the ABI, contends that plant-based manufacturers are attempting to “leverage the premium perception of real dairy butter.” He labels the term “butter” for plant-based products as a “total oxymoron,” which could undermine the integrity of food labeling. The dairy industry’s argument hinges on federal identity standards, which legally define butter as a milk-derived product.

By allowing “fake butters” to use the term, they argue, the regulations are breached, and it potentially misleads consumers within the dairy product market. This debate is not new. The National Milk Producers Federation raised similar objections in 2019 regarding plant-based butter labeling. The dairy industry maintains that only milk-origin products should use dairy-specific terms.

The outcome of the FDA’s decision on this matter could greatly affect the competitive dynamics between dairy and non-dairy markets, highlighting the growing regulatory challenges faced by both traditional dairy producers and plant-based innovators.

Galen emphasized that labeling a non-dairy item as butter is a direct violation of federal standards. Galen remains hopeful that the Trump administration will give the complaint careful consideration and respond with greater sympathy to their concerns.