Goat Milk

The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act has successfully cleared (Dec 15, 2025) both chambers of Congress, signifying a significant policy reversal regarding milk options available in US schools. This legislation overturns a 2012 federal rule from the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act which restricted school milk offerings to only fat-free or 1 percent varieties. The bill, championed by bipartisan support and expected to be signed by President Trump, aims to reintroduce whole and 2 percent milk options.

Dairy farmers and industry representatives have warmly welcomed this legislative change, viewing it as a potential market booster. Keith Kimball, chairperson of the Northeast Dairy Producers Association, noted that whole milk contains essential nutrients beneficial for children’s growth. The reintroduction of whole milk is seen as a way to meet children’s beverage preferences while promoting science-backed nutrition choices.

Economist Daniel Munch from the American Farm Bureau Federation noted that while the legislation might not result in substantial windfalls for dairy farmers, it is anticipated to have a measurable impact on dairy markets. Schools, serving nearly 4.9 billion lunches in 2024, could shift significant butterfat volumes from butter and cheese production back into fluid milk channels. This change may benefit smaller dairies by creating local farm-to-school supply opportunities.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand emphasized the importance of the legislation for student nutrition and local agriculture, highlighting the National School Lunch Program’s influence on dairy demand. The program serves about 30 million students daily and accounts for approximately 7.5 percent of US fluid milk sales, thus playing a key role in shaping market dynamics.

General Mills has reported its fiscal second-quarter results, surpassing Wall Street expectations with adjusted earnings of $1.10 per share, above analysts’ projections of $1.02. Despite facing challenges from the sale of its yogurt business in North America, the company’s shares rose by 1.17% following the announcement. Net sales for the quarter ending November 23 reached $4.9 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.78 billion, though representing a 7% year-over-year decline.

The divestment of the yogurt business, which included the Yoplait brand, led to a 10% decrease in sales for the North American Retail segment, which saw a 13% fall in net sales. This strategic move is part of General Mills’ shift towards higher-margin categories with less competition from private labels, which have affected their fresh dairy market share. The yogurt segment, with its high perishability and logistical costs, has faced profitability pressures in mature markets due to consumer shifts towards plant-based or premium functional products.

Organic net sales, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, dropped by only 1% year-over-year, demonstrating the resilience of the remaining portfolio. Jeff Harmening, CEO of General Mills, noted that investments in product innovation, premium packaging, brand communication, and omnichannel execution are driving organic volume growth in North America, enhancing competitiveness across all segments.

The North American Pet segment saw an 11% increase in net sales, benefiting from the acquisition of Whitebridge Pet Brands. The International segment experienced a 6% growth, driven by strong performance in Brazil, China, India, and North Asia. This geographic diversification helps offset domestic market weaknesses, where private-label competition and consumer preferences for fresh, local, and less-processed foods pressure traditional categories like cereals and baking mixes.

General Mills has reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, expecting organic net sales to range between -1% and +1%, with adjusted operating profit and diluted earnings per share projected to decrease by 10% to 15% in constant currency. This cautious guidance reflects a transitional year post-dairy divestment, prioritizing reinvestment in strategic brands over short-term margin expansion.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that China’s dairy industry will reach a phase of structural stability by 2026. This follows a period of volatility characterized by declining milk prices since 2022. As a result, smaller dairy producers have exited the market, leading to a consolidation of production within larger industrial operations.

According to the USDA’s office in Beijing, mega-farms now account for over 68% of China’s total milk production. This marks an increase of more than 2% compared to the previous year. The consolidation trend reflects a broader global pattern where operations with economies of scale dominate markets with compressed profit margins.

China’s local dairy production is gradually reducing its historic dependency on imports. Although fluid milk imports are expected to decline slightly by 2026, the production of skim milk powder is projected to increase, maintaining current import levels. Despite this progress, China remains reliant on foreign suppliers for specialized dairy products where domestic competitiveness is still developing.

The USDA also forecasts a slight growth in both the production and importation of butter and cheese. Meanwhile, imports of whey and derivatives are expected to remain strong. These projections highlight strategic opportunities for global exporters, as China’s domestic market continues to evolve.

Overall, the shift towards mega-farm dominance and increased local production are reshaping the dairy supply chain in China, with implications for technology, bovine genetics, feed, and specialized veterinary services. This transformation is steering China’s dairy industry towards efficiency and biosecurity standards comparable to leading Western dairy regions.