Goat Milk

Following a poor run of results in recent months, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) has recorded a positive start to 2026.

The inaugural Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event of 2026, identified as Event 395, took place on January 6 and sent a positive message to the international dairy market. The GDT Price Index experienced a notable rise of 6.3% compared to the previous event, signifying a robust start to the year for global dairy prices.

Experts noted that the strong rise in the index (+6.3%) was largely driven by the significant share of milk powder—especially whole milk powder—in total traded volumes, which were considerably lower than at previous auctions.

The auction highlighted a strong buyer presence, with average winning prices hitting USD 3,533 per metric ton, indicating increased competition and willingness to pay among buyers. There were 177 registered bidders participating in the auction, out of which 114 emerged as successful buyers.

The auction was extensive, comprising 26 bidding rounds over a span of 2 hours and 57 minutes, underscoring the intensity and demand present in the market. The volume of dairy products traded ranged between 27,936 and 34,923 metric tons, with the total quantity sold amounting to 29,282 metric tons, consistent with recent events.

This strong performance in the first GDT of 2026 provides a positive outlook for dairy producers, processors, and exporting countries, who are closely monitoring international price trends following a cautious end to 2025.

The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act has successfully cleared (Dec 15, 2025) both chambers of Congress, signifying a significant policy reversal regarding milk options available in US schools. This legislation overturns a 2012 federal rule from the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act which restricted school milk offerings to only fat-free or 1 percent varieties. The bill, championed by bipartisan support and expected to be signed by President Trump, aims to reintroduce whole and 2 percent milk options.

Dairy farmers and industry representatives have warmly welcomed this legislative change, viewing it as a potential market booster. Keith Kimball, chairperson of the Northeast Dairy Producers Association, noted that whole milk contains essential nutrients beneficial for children’s growth. The reintroduction of whole milk is seen as a way to meet children’s beverage preferences while promoting science-backed nutrition choices.

Economist Daniel Munch from the American Farm Bureau Federation noted that while the legislation might not result in substantial windfalls for dairy farmers, it is anticipated to have a measurable impact on dairy markets. Schools, serving nearly 4.9 billion lunches in 2024, could shift significant butterfat volumes from butter and cheese production back into fluid milk channels. This change may benefit smaller dairies by creating local farm-to-school supply opportunities.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand emphasized the importance of the legislation for student nutrition and local agriculture, highlighting the National School Lunch Program’s influence on dairy demand. The program serves about 30 million students daily and accounts for approximately 7.5 percent of US fluid milk sales, thus playing a key role in shaping market dynamics.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that China’s dairy industry will reach a phase of structural stability by 2026. This follows a period of volatility characterized by declining milk prices since 2022. As a result, smaller dairy producers have exited the market, leading to a consolidation of production within larger industrial operations.

According to the USDA’s office in Beijing, mega-farms now account for over 68% of China’s total milk production. This marks an increase of more than 2% compared to the previous year. The consolidation trend reflects a broader global pattern where operations with economies of scale dominate markets with compressed profit margins.

China’s local dairy production is gradually reducing its historic dependency on imports. Although fluid milk imports are expected to decline slightly by 2026, the production of skim milk powder is projected to increase, maintaining current import levels. Despite this progress, China remains reliant on foreign suppliers for specialized dairy products where domestic competitiveness is still developing.

The USDA also forecasts a slight growth in both the production and importation of butter and cheese. Meanwhile, imports of whey and derivatives are expected to remain strong. These projections highlight strategic opportunities for global exporters, as China’s domestic market continues to evolve.

Overall, the shift towards mega-farm dominance and increased local production are reshaping the dairy supply chain in China, with implications for technology, bovine genetics, feed, and specialized veterinary services. This transformation is steering China’s dairy industry towards efficiency and biosecurity standards comparable to leading Western dairy regions.