Goat Milk

Rising output from the EU, US and New Zealand are putting downward pressure on commodity prices and creating market uncertainty, according to an August 2025 report.

Global dairy commodity prices are under increasing pressure as milk output rises across key producing regions, according to an August 2025 report by Maxum Foods. This dynamic is weakening market fundamentals and product values, creating a challenging environment for producers and processors. While the dairy agribusiness sector saw some price strength earlier in the year, the current trend indicates a shift toward a more bearish market sentiment driven by expanding supply.

The report highlights specific regional trends contributing to the global surplus. In the European Union, earlier supply constraints are now easing, even as a hot, dry summer threatens future feed availability. Meanwhile, the United States is seeing strong milk and cheese production that is outpacing weak domestic demand and an inadequate export growth rate. This combination is leading to a buildup of inventories and eroding values.

New Zealand, a pivotal player in the international dairy trade, is also experiencing favorable production conditions ahead of its new season. Its milk output is projected to grow slightly above last year’s already strong results. This increased supply, alongside the output from the EU and the US, is a primary factor in the global market’s shift. The report notes that while global trade continues to expand, there’s growing pushback against high prices, as evidenced by New Zealand’s export trends.

The situation in Australia provides a stark contrast, where the milk sector faces its own unique challenges. Despite improved rainfall prospects in some eastern areas, southern regions are dealing with ongoing feed shortages. This has pushed hay prices to nearly double what they were in May. As a result, culling activity has reached its highest level in over three years, and the forecast for Australian milk solids production is a 2% decline for the 2025/26 season, a critical detail for dairy economics analysts.

The complex interplay of these regional developments, combined with lingering geopolitical agendas and shifts in US fiscal policy, continues to impact commodity markets. The report concludes that while there are still unknowns, the overall trend points to a market where expanding supply is likely to outstrip demand, posing a significant challenge for the entire international dairy community in the second half of the year.

Cheese prices break $1.70, boosting nearby milk futures, but the slide in 2026 contracts signals future uncertainty.

The recent surge in cheese prices has been a topic of close scrutiny among market watchers. Breaking the crucial $1.70 per pound mark, cheese prices are infusing optimism into milk futures contracts for the coming months. This rally represents a strong signal for the dairy sector, with nearby Class III futures experiencing significant boosts as September contracts rose by more than 40 cents from the week’s low.

However, while short-term cheese markets are thriving, 2026 futures contracts do not paint the same rosy picture. They have dipped, with January to June contracts falling six cents to a low of $17.78 per hundredweight, showing the lowest levels since April. This trend underlines the mixed sentiments within the dairy industry, with concerns about the longer-term outlook.

Market Highlights:

• CME cheese markets saw a resurgence over $1.70 per pound, with spot blocks closing at $1.7050 per pound and barrels at $1.7100 per pound.
• The butter market faced a slight downturn to $2.4450 per pound, while spot dry whey prices rallied up to $0.5500 per pound.
• Latest labor statistics indicate a soft job market, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, and unemployment rising to 4.2%.

The dichotomy in cheese price trends between various futures contracts and spot markets captures the existing uncertainty within the dairy industry as it navigates the fluctuating economic landscape.

Organic goat milk has become known as “white gold” in the dairy market, offering goat producers a price premium of up to 40% over conventional milk. This significant increase is indicative of the growing consumer demand for natural, sustainable products with animal welfare guarantees. For goat farms, shifting to organic production is a promising strategy to enhance profitability and ensure long-term sustainability.

The price difference is due to the stringent requirements of organic certification, which include the use of chemical-free pastures, feed based on organic fodder, and a ban on preventative hormones and antibiotics, as well as ensuring free grazing and animal welfare. Despite potentially higher initial investments and operational costs, the premium price and growing market interest justify these challenges, making organic goat milk an appealing niche.

The demand is driven by factors such as increasing health awareness, the search for cow milk alternatives, and a preference for products with a lower environmental footprint. Consumers are willing to pay more for foods they perceive as purer and ethically produced. This trend not only benefits producers but also encourages the goat dairy industry to innovate and expand its range of organic offerings, from cheese to yogurt.

For goat dairy producers, this price differential represents a strategic opportunity to diversify business models and secure a more stable future. Organic goat farming is not only viable, but it is also evolving into a high-value segment within the dairy sector, attracting new investors and reinforcing farm specialization. It is a path that aligns profitability with environmental and social responsibilities.